Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Analyzing the Ohio Electorate

This will be the first of several posts summarizing my analysis of the 2008 Presidential race in the state of Ohio. To truly understand the dynamics and changing environment, it is critical to review the results of the 2000 Bush/Gore and 2004 Bush/Kerry elections. These results provide a baseline for understanding the 2008 landscape. They will also provide insight into the potential impact of the new voter registrations that have occurred since 2004.

Over the next several weeks, I shall be documenting this analysis through a series of posts:

  • Bush/Gore 2000: An Ohio Primer
  • Bush/Gore 2000: The Results
  • Bush/Kerry 2004: Register Those Voters
  • Bush/Kerry 2004: Get Out the Vote
  • 2008 Ohio Political Environment
  • 2008 Voter Registration Analysis

I will also give update on the emerging trend in Registered Voters in Ohio as registration continues in Ohio through October 6, 2008.

All of this will culminate on Election Night where I will attempt to call Ohio based on the actual county results prior to the networks. And all without exit poll data!

I was able to do so in 2004, and if it's close, I expect to be able to do so again. In fact, in 2004, I remember laughing as Susan Estrich was spouting off on Fox News that Kerry was about to make a comeback in Ohio – just as soon as the Cleveland returns would start to come in. Unfortunately for her, I was showing that Kerry would need an impossible 80% of the Cleveland vote to even make it close. An hour later, her colleagues told her the same thing when they called Ohio for Bush. I smiled and went to sleep vindicated.

Over the next several posts, I'll explain the nature of the Ohio political landscape and my analysis of elections past, present, and future.

All data used in this analysis was obtained from the Ohio Secretary of States website at http://www.sos.state.oh.us/.