Sunday, September 21, 2008

Ohio Newpaper Poll: McCain Up by 6; Obama Supporters: It's Race

The first of three Ohio Newspaper polls shows McCain leading 48% - 42%.
Respondents attributed to Mr. McCain more than Mr. Obama the qualities of ‘good judgment,’ ‘qualified,’ and ‘higher personal and ethical standards.’

Mr. Obama scored better than Mr. McCain with likely voters on ‘personally likeable’
and ‘best understands the problems facing Ohio.’

Mr. Rademacher said the results suggest that voters don’t know as much about Mr. Obama as they do about Mr. McCain. It showed more ‘defections’ among Democrats than among Republicans, and it revealed that Mr. Obama’s support isn’t as strong in northeast Ohio as it should be.
Obama's support in the northeast is critical for him to carry Ohio. In 2004, Kerry ran up a 226,903 vote advantage in Cleveland's Cuyahoga county and still lost Ohio by over 100,000 votes. Obama will have to do at least as good to have a chance.

Of course if you ask Obama's supporters, it couldn't be experience, judgement, or ethics that would be leading to McCain's support. It's something else entirely:
Several Obama supporters interviewed by the Ohio Newspaper Poll predicted that the Illinois senator’s race will be an impossible obstacle for many voters. Mr. Obama is the son of a black father and a white mother.

‘The color of Mr. Obama’s skin — he will not carry this area,’ said William Nesselrode, 64, of Stockport, in southeast Ohio.
Nesselrode is right about one thing, Obama won't carry Morgan county, the county in which Stockport is located. Gore lost this county 38% - 58% to Bush in 2000. Kerry lost it 43% - 56% in 2004. Somehow however, I don't think race was the prevailing reason why they lost. It won't be the reason Obama loses it either, but that won't stop the Obama supporters from making their allegations anyway.

Ironically, pollster Erick Rademacher found that more people thought McCain's age would hurt him more than Obama's race, with Democrats leading the way.
Mr. Rademacher did not find strong evidence of race bias among voters. Twenty-three percent of the respondents thought Mr. Obama’s race would hurt him in the election — with Democrats holding that view more than twice as often as Republicans.

A much larger number — 44 percent — said Mr. McCain’s age, at 72, would hurt him, with more Democrats than Republicans holding this view.
Of course that shouldn't be a surprise. After all, Republicans nominated Ken Blackwell as their 2006 gubernatorial candidate.

All figures provided in this and other posts on Ohio Voter obtained from the Ohio Secretary of State website.